Emissions Gap Report 2023

This is the second in a series of articles explaining the key messages in some of these reports. It examines the Emissions Gap Report 2023^[1], a companion report to the Production Gap Report 2023^[2] which was previously discussed in the previous article in the series. The Emissions Gap Report 2023 is the fourteenth edition by the UN Programme.

The Emissions Gap Report 2023

The fourteenth edition of the Emissions Gap Report from the UN Environment Programme, provides an assessment of the gap between national pledged greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions and the reductions required to align with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement^[3]. The 2023 report covers the first of quinquennial stock takes to assess the global response to the climate crisis.

The report comments on countries’ pledges and their nationally determined contributions (NDCs)^[4]; for example, Australia has pledged to reach net-zero by 2050, and 43% of 2005 levels by 2030.

NDCs are more detailed reports on efforts and actions to address climate change and must be updated every five years. Australia’s 2022 NDC report noted plans for improving the electricity grid to support renewable energy sources, declining baselines under the Safeguards Mechanism and support for electric vehicles.

NDCs may be unconditional (implemented using domestic resources) or conditional (partially dependent on external support).

The message is clear that unprecedented action is needed globally. For high-income countries, this includes accelerating domestic emissions reductions, committing to net-zero as soon as possible, as well as providing financial and technical support to low-and-middle-income countries, that need to transition away from fossil fuels.

Key findings:

Record global GHG emissions in 2022

Global GHG emissions increased by 1.2% from 2021 to 2022, to 57.4 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e), as shown in Figure 1. Transport is the only sector not to have fully rebounded from falls in the COVID-19 period. Emissions of methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and fluorinated gases (F-gases) are increasing rapidly^[5].

Despite a record increase in solar energy capacity and electricity demand growth being primarily met by renewables in 2022, investment in fossil fuel extraction continued in most regions.

Figure 1: Anthropogenic GHG emissions growth^[6]

Inequality in current and historical GHG emissions

GHG emissions have historically been, and remain, unequal across countries. This inequality also occurs within countries. The 10% of the global population with the highest earnings account for about 48% of emissions, and two-thirds reside in developed countries. The lowest 50% of earners contributed only 12% of emissions. It is important to understand this inequality to develop fair climate policies.

Figure 2: Current and historic contributions to climate change^[7]

Movement in emissions policies and NDCs

149 NDCs have now been submitted (counting the EU as one) since the Paris Agreement at COP21. While progress since the Paris Agreement has been significant, it is still insufficient to narrow the emissions gap.

Countries’ emission policies have shown improvement since COP21, with projected GHG emissions in 2030 moving from an increase of 16% to an increase of 3%. However, there is an ‘implementation gap’ between projected emissions under current policies and under full implementation of the NDCs.

The implementation gap for 2030 is around 1.5 GtCO₂e for unconditional NDCs and 5 GtCO₂e for conditional NDCs. Newly adopted policies are the main driver for lower global emission projections for 2030.

Net-zero pledges have been adopted by 97 parties to COP, as of 25 September 2023. This represents 81% of global GHG emissions, 37% targeting 2050 or earlier and 44% later than 2050. All G20 members (representing 76% of global emissions) have set net-zero targets, except Mexico. But none of the G20 members are reducing emissions at a rate consistent with the net-zero targets.

Emissions gap

The emissions gap is the difference between estimated global GHG emissions under the latest NDCs and least cost pathways aligned with Paris Agreement temperature goals.

The gap between current unconditional NDCs and the Paris Agreement 2^oC temperature goal is 14 GtCO₂e and 22 GtCO₂e for the 1.5^oC goal. These reduce by 3 GtCO₂e for conditional goals. These are compared to estimated global GHG emissions in 2030 under current policies of 56 GtCO₂e which highlight that the emissions gap is substantial.

Figure 3: Pathways to Paris Agreement temperature goals[8]

We need to act now

Immediate, accelerated and relentless mitigation action is required to make the necessary deep emissions reductions to narrow the gap.

Global commitments in the next round of NDCs need to bring GHG emissions in 2035 to 36 GtCO₂e for the 2^oC temperature target and 25 GtCO₂e for the 1.5^oC target. By contrast, a continuation of current policies and NDCs is expected to result in global GHG emissions of 56 GtCO₂e.

Looking further forward, net-zero pledges and unconditional NDCs must be fully implemented by 2050 to bring global GHG emissions closer to the 2^oC and 1.5^oC pathways.

Current policies

A continuation of current policies is estimated to lead to global warming of 3^oC with further warming beyond 2100. Delivering on all conditional and unconditional NDCs by 2030 brings this to 2.5^oC and fulfilment of net-zero pledges reduces this to 2^oC.

The UN Secretary-General calls on big emitters to make extra efforts to reduce emissions, and for wealthier countries to provide financial and technical support to low- and middle-income countries to assist their transformation.

Energy accounts for about 86% of GHG emissions. Global transformation of energy systems is essential.

Conventional carbon dioxide reduction (CDR) (afforestation, reforestation and management of existing forests) is currently estimated at 2 GtCO₂ annually and is expected to grow to 6 GtCO₂ by 2050. Reliance on novel CDR such as Carbon Capture and Storage technologies is uncertain and risky due to issues of land competition, technical, policies and indigenous rights considerations.

The way forward

The Emissions Gap Report finds that while there has been progress since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, greater action is urgently needed to transform our economies and reduce GHG emissions.

Keep an eye out for our next article in this series which will cover the Global Climate 2011-2020 report.

References

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