An Actuarial Centenary to Celebrate

To mark a century of the Office of the Australian Government Actuary (AGA), the Institute hosted a special event in Old Parliament House. The gathering included guests with whom the AGA has worked, including Australian Public Service staff from nearly 20 departments and entities, academia and the private sector. 

The Secretary to the Treasury, Steven Kennedy PSM, opened the proceedings. He spoke to how the AGA, which is part of the Treasury portfolio, has supported governments throughout the years with actuarial analysis, forecasting, and expert advice on long-term financial sustainability and risk assessment across diverse technical and policy contexts. 

Institute President, David Whittle, provided further welcoming remarks, highlighting how the role of the AGA epitomises the very best of the actuarial profession by putting the public interest and public wellbeing at the heart of advice.

A panel discussion chaired by Institute CEO Elayne Grace explored the AGA’s century of advice in greater detail. The panel included John Maroney (AGA #5), Peter Martin (AGA #9), Guy Thorburn (AGA #10), Mohita Zaheed, Treasury First Assistant Secretary, and Bridget Browne, AGA Senior Actuary. 

Further nostalgia was added with the sharing of a digital postcard from Craig Thorburn (AGA #7) who is in the US, and sage nods and smiles from Kevin Deeves (AGA #8) in the audience.  

Current AGA Guy Thorburn highlighted the perseverance of those who have been in the role. He noted that it took many years, and iterations, for the right policy solution to be found at the right time. 

This was exemplified by Walter Balmford (AGA #2, 1938–57) who was recruited from the UK to implement the then-recently enacted National Insurance Scheme (NIS). On docking in Australia after his long journey by ship, Balmford was greeted by a newspaper front page stating ‘National Insurance System cancelled!’ The time was not right – the Australian Government needed to choose whether it could fund the impending war effort or such a scheme. 

But over subsequent decades, each component of the then-NIS was introduced in a design appropriate for the new time – the Pharmaceuticals Benefit Scheme (from 1948), Medicare (from 1984) and the Superannuation Guarantee Contribution Scheme (from 1992). 

The Cyclone Reinsurance Pool is another such policy solution. A version was first suggested in the wake of Cyclone Tracy which devastated Darwin in 1974. The idea was raised again in various contexts during the 2010s, and the legislated pool commenced in 2022.  

John Maroney (AGA #5) reflected on his time as AGA during 1988–91, which focused on reform of Australian Government civilian and military superannuation schemes, and the movement of superannuation from defined benefit to defined contribution schemes. A critical underpinning at that time was the ongoing actuarial monitoring of the unfunded liabilities, rather than a ‘set-and-forget’ approach. Publishing these estimates, which made apparent the size of the public policy issue, enabled the reforms to be implemented. Because this was also a time of rebuilding the staffing of the office, John relied on strong links with actuaries working in the private sector.  

Peter Martin (AGA #9) said that when he began in the role in 2000, he worried he would have no work. However, his concern was quickly allayed. Peter worked through 3 major events in his first 2 years as AGA, which defined the theme of his tenure – resolving when a collapse is a failure that requires government to step in. The collapses of HIH Insurance, Ansett Australia (an airline) and Australia’s then-largest medical indemnity provider, United Medical Protection, and the 9/11 attack in the US, provided the clarification. Through these events the Terrorism Reinsurance Pool and Medical Indemnity Insurance Scheme were born. 

Mohita Zaheed said that by working closely with the AGA, especially on general insurance, she came to value the fact that actuaries ‘give shape to risk’. They quantify it, ascribe confidence levels to that quantification, provide insight to distributional impact, and so much more. This is very powerful information for providing policy advice.  

To round out the panel, Bridget Browne returned the discussion to almost where Walter Balmford began – the role of government in meeting people’s most basic needs. She spoke about the Priority Investment Approach to Welfare, and how early assistance in people’s lives across different touch points they have with government can set them up for better futures. This ‘whole person’ approach takes a much bigger picture than any single scheme, program or department. Looking ahead, advances in data, such the ABS’s Person Level Integrated Data Asset, used within strict privacy, governance and security protections, will help set up even better evidence-based policymaking.   

Via a postcard, Craig Thorburn (AGA #7) shared his observations that demography is a passion, life insurance is good for you (with much great work happening in the then Life Commissioner role), policy is a skill that the AGA’s office ‘gets’ but others have to learn, and how those in the AGA office want to make people’s lives better and they do.  

Seeing and hearing the diverse ways in which the AGA has strengthened public policy over its first 100 years warmed the hearts and minds of all in the audience. The queue for signings of the AGA’s A Century of Australian Government Actuaries further attested to that.   

The Institute wishes the office of the AGA many more successful years.

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