Environmental risks from a fixed income investor perspective

There is a growing recognition by fixed income investors of the impact to their investments from environmental, social or governance (ESG) risks. Increasingly corporate and even sovereign blow-ups can be attributed, at least in part, to ESG factorsⁱ which were not identified in traditional credit analysis models. ESG risks are considered non-financial risks factors. But badly managed, these risks can and will have a financial impact for both companies and governments, thereby affecting their default or credit risk.

Changing demand for coal

One example of this is the coal industry. There has been a dramatic shift in pricing and demand both globally and regionally which has implications for extractors and generators. A variety of factors are driving the shift toward cleaner energy sources by major energy consumers like China, India, the US and Europe, which is affecting the coal industry. Concerns about air pollution are driving a decline in China’s coal consumptionⁱⁱ, while in the US major gas discoveries and lower cost extraction techniques are driving a dramatic shift in the power generation mixⁱⁱⁱ.

Falling demand for coal, both globally and regionally, would be negative for coal prices and have a negative impact on coal miners’ ability to service their debt. It also has implications for coal-powered generators which have seen increasing demand for clean energy. This in turn will affect the cost of debt and equity capital for those issuers. Indeed stock prices for these companies have underperformed significantly over the last five years with the Dow Jones coal price index down over 70%.

Stranded assets

Looking forward, regulatory and societal responses to climate change have sparked concern that there is a “coal bubble” which may leave assets stranded. These risks are not trivial. According to the Carbon Tracker Initiative^iv, stranded assets are fossil fuel energy and generation resources which, at some time prior to the end of their economic life, are no longer able to earn an economic return as a result of changes in the market and regulatory environment associated with the transition to a low-carbon economy. The IEA estimates as much as two thirds of current known fossil fuel reserves are at risk^v.

As a result the dominant position held by coal in the world’s primary energy and electricity markets, and the sheer size of global coal reserves, are increasingly threatened by climate change regulation, economics and energy innovation. Credit rating agencies, even though they do not formally consider climate change risk in their credit assessment models, are acknowledging this growing risk with S&P saying that in an increasingly carbon-constrained environment, “most of these assets could wind up having no economic return”^vi.

Changes in the energy sector

We have seen recent change in emphasis by AGL in a bid to stay relevant in the energy sector with the company committing to phasing out its current fleet of coal-fired generators and stepping up its renewable energy investments^vii. Both AGL and Origin^viii are waking up to solar energy in the face of changing economics and changing customer habits. It remains to be seen whether companies like these can make the transition smoothly.

The increasing pace of change in the coal sector has implications for all players in the energy value chain. Negative externalities, including environmental risks, are increasingly driving industry dynamics and should be a consideration by all banks and investors when lending to this sector, especially given these risks are being highlighted by reputable organisations like the IEA, the World Bank and UN. In this regard, the commitment by the big four Australian banks to disclose their financed carbon emissions^ix, not just their direct emissions, is a step in the right direction.

Government finance

The uncertainty in the coal industry also has implications for government finances. The Queensland government, a major bond issuer with over $80 billion in debt outstanding, had previously announced^x that it would contribute hundreds of millions of dollars towards rail infrastructure to connect the Galilee Basin coal mines with coastal ports. This decision was based on the contribution of the investment to the economy and the price for coal. However the dramatic fall in coal price and change of Government this year has created uncertainty over this investment.

Queensland Treasury has acknowledged^xi that spending on infrastructure for coal mines comes at the expense of spending on social infrastructure. This is a concern for the future sustainability of the state in terms of its impact on revenue and expenses, which in turn impacts the state’s cost of funding. This should be a consideration for bond investors who are invested in bonds issued by state governments.

Implications for investors

Bond investors can take a number of steps to fully incorporate these risks into their investment process. Our approach has been to factor ESG risks into our internal credit ratings. This approach has resulted in generally lower internal credit ratings being assigned to high ESG risk companies than the ratings agencies have assigned, which in turn has led to superior portfolio performance through our lower default experience.

Our consideration of the ESG risks for fixed income investments is part of our overall responsible investment and stewardship strategy. Our latest report^xii provides further case studies of how ESG is influencing our investment approach.

ⁱ A common example is the rating downgrades and the credit spread blow out for Egypt following the Arab Spring. PRI Sovereign Bonds: Spotlight on ESG risks 2013 http://www.unpri.org/viewer/?file=wp-content/uploads/SpotlightonESGrisks.pdf

ⁱⁱ PRC National Energy Administration Oct 2014 cited by http://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/13/china-coal-consumption-co2-emissions-drop-2014/

iii http://insideclimatenews.org/carbon-copy/22052015/analysis-shows-clean-power-plan-would-cut-coal-use-energy-information-agency

^iv http://www.carbontracker.org/

^v IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2012/november/name,33015,en.html

^vi Standard & Poor’s, Carbon Constraints Cast A Shadow Over The Future of the Coal Industry, 21 July 2014, http://www.carbontracker.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014-07-21-SP-Carbon-Constraints-Cast-A-Shadow-Over-The-Future-Of-The-Coal-Industry3.pdf

^vii http://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/media-centre/article-list/2015/april/agl-policy-to-provide-pathway-to-decarbonisation-of-electricity-generation

^viii http://www.originenergy.com.au/content/dam/origin/about/investors-media/docs/results-interim-presentation-2015.pdf

^ix Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility, Financed Emission, ‘Unburnable Carbon’ risk and the Major Australian Banks, October 2014, http://www.accr.org.au/bigbankreport

^x http://www.statedevelopment.qld.gov.au/assessments-and-approvals/north-galilee-basin-rail-project.html

^xi https://cgc.gov.au/index.php?option=com_attachments&task=download&id=1727

^xii http://ri.firststateinvestments.com/

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